Experts Warn of Rising Covid Risk as Vaccination Rates Decline

Australians are being cautioned about the potential threat posed by falling Covid-19 vaccination rates amid the emergence of a new, highly contagious variant.

The subvariant NB.1.8.1—first identified on January 21—is now driving a surge in Covid-19 cases across China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. It has also become the dominant strain in Western Australia, contributing to a 24% increase in case numbers.

Professor Paul Griffin, infectious diseases expert at Mater Hospital in Brisbane, noted that current Covid vaccination rates are at their lowest since vaccines were first introduced five years ago.

“We’ve lost momentum with Covid-19 vaccinations,” said Prof Griffin. “But the virus remains widespread and continues to pose a significant risk, especially to high-risk individuals.”

He recommends an annual Covid booster for vulnerable populations, similar to the seasonal flu shot. “With winter beginning next week, now is the time to get vaccinated—and it’s safe to receive the Covid and flu vaccines together,” he said.

NB.1.8.1 is one of hundreds of Omicron subvariants and is contributing to rising infections and hospitalisations, especially in Asia and Western Australia.

“The latest booster offers strong protection, is safe, and can help reduce symptom severity,” Prof Griffin added.

In Queensland, fewer than 250,000 people have received their annual booster, despite it being free.

Flu cases in the state have also risen sharply, with over 2,000 hospitalisations reported so far this year—30% higher than the same period in 2024. This, combined with rising Covid and RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) cases, is putting additional pressure on the healthcare system. Over 1,500 people have already been hospitalised with RSV, with babies under six months and people over 65 most affected.

RSV vaccines are available for pregnant women, providing immunity to newborns for their first six months.

Experts also warn that childhood vaccination rates—not only for Covid but across the board—have been in steady decline since the pandemic began.

“Since 2020, the percentage of fully vaccinated children has dropped each year,” said Professor Peter Beadon from the Grattan Institute. “For every vaccine on the National Immunisation Schedule, coverage was lower in 2024 than in 2020.”

Globally, measles cases rose by 20% in 2023.

“Australia has historically been a vaccination success story—virtually eliminating diseases like polio—but that achievement is now under threat,” Prof Beadon warned.